Posted December 12, 2007
Analysis by Richard Cowan
Today, the President took a break from cheering our victories in the Iraq war to cheer our victories in the drug war.
“This morning I was briefed on the latest Monitoring the Future study, which tracks drug use amongst America’s youth. It reports that since 2001, the overall use of illicit drugs by young people has dropped by 24 percent. Marijuana use fell by 25 percent, steroid use by a third, and the use of ecstasy by 54 percent. The most encouraging statistic relates to the use of methamphetamine, which has plummeted by an impressive 64 percent since 2001.
One exception to this trend is a rise in the abuse of certain prescription pain killers. This is troubling, and we’re going to continue to confront the challenge. Yet the overall direction is hopeful. Because Americans took action, today there are an estimated 860,000 fewer children using drugs than six years ago.”
First, I have to point out that – coincidentally? – there were 800,000 marijuana arrests last year and over 4 million during that six year period.
Bush uses 2001 as the baseline, because that is when he first woke up in the White House. However, as Jacob Sullum points out, “the combined measure actually peaked in 1997, went down, stayed about the same for a couple years, went down again and then went up slightly before resuming the downward trend that began during the Clinton administration.”
And as W noted, there was “a rise in the abuse of certain prescription pain killers.”
In fact, the use of OxyContin has increased about 30% since 2002, and more than 15% of 12th-graders reported misusing a prescription drug within the last year. One in 10 teenagers reported using Vicodin within the last year. This reminds me of another great victory in 2000.
Actually, in 2001 and 2007, the same percentage of 12th graders reported using heroin during the previous year. Cocaine use among 12th-graders who used the drug over the last year slightly increased, from 4.8% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2007.
Drug Czar John P. Walters said that teenagers think that “street drugs” such as marijuana and cocaine are dangerous.
But, he said, they assume that pharmaceutical drugs can provide a safer high because they come from the medical establishment. This echoes the recent statement by the governor of Florida.
Marijuana remains the most widely used illegal drug. One in 10 eighth-graders, one fourth of 10th-graders and nearly one third of 12th-graders say they smoked marijuana in the past year. Use among eighth-graders declined from 11.7% in 2006 to 10.3% in 2007, while use in other grades remained steady. Remember, one in 10 teenagers reported using Vicodin within the last year.
The use of over-the-counter cough medicines to get high also remained steady at 4% of eighth-graders, 5.4% of sophomores and 5.8% of seniors.
Of course, the purpose of this publicity is to justify the drug war, but the reality is very different. It is clear that – as usual – the drug war has driven teens from using marijuana – the least dangerous drug, legal or illegal – to use other more dangerous substances.
Also, while the use of medical marijuana in California and some other states has increased hugely, marijuana use has gone down, contrary to the predictions by the prohibitionists.
A White House press release says, “Attacking illegal drug use reduces abuse of other substances by youth as well. Use of alcohol, including binge drinking, and cigarettes have decreased by 15 and 33 percent, respectively.
In other words, without arresting a single adult for using tobacco, teen cigarette use went down more than teen marijuana use.
The “Monitoring the Future” survey is conducted annually; this year it was given to a random national sample of 48,025 students in the eighth, 10th and 12th grades in 403 public and private schools. All of the students answered truthfully, of course.
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